Comparative Scenario Analysis of Decarbonization Pathways Toward Carbon Neutrality for Guangdong’s Energy System Using the LEAP Model

Guangdong is China’s largest provincial electricity consumer (912.1 TWh in 2024). Using a Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) model calibrated to the 2024 provincial yearbook, this paper compares a Business-as-Usual (BAU) reference with three decarbonization pathways over 2024–2060: Policy-Instrument-Coupled (PIC), Deep-Electrification-and-Hydrogen (DEH) and Digital-economy-with-CCUS (DCN). From 862 Mt CO2 in 2024, BAU peaks at 1143 Mt in 2040, whereas the pathways fall to 139, 99 and 35 Mt of direct emissions in 2060. After BECCS removals, only DCN approaches neutrality (21 Mt net, comparable to a conservative provincial land-sink estimate). Forty-three control scenarios show that end-use efficiency and fuel switching deliver 85–91% of the 2060 reduction relative to BAU and the capacity mix 8–10%. In 10,000 correlated Monte Carlo draws over the tested ranges, the ranking DCN < DEH < PIC never changes. In an hourly check (three ERA5 weather years, stylized load), the pathways serve every hour with at most 17 GW of four-hour storage (20–32 GW with plan-level offshore wind and nuclear), whereas the BAU capacity path falls short from 2040. By 2060, 38–57% of the pathways’ must-run output is surplus, and electricity-supply cost per MWh rises in the reverse order of emission depth.