Comparative Life Cycle Assessment of Battery Electric and Internal Combustion Engine Passenger Cars Under a Fossil-Dominated Electricity Grid: The Case of Saudi Arabia

This study quantifies whether vehicle electrification reduces greenhouse gas emissions on one of the world’s most fossil-intensive electricity grids. A transparent, ISO 14040/14044-conformant cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment compares a mid-size battery electric vehicle (BEV, 60 kWh) with a comparable gasoline car over 225,000 km, using a fully source-traceable process-sum inventory and life cycle (well-to-wheel) emission factors for both energy carriers. On the 2024 Saudi grid (692 g CO2e/kWh, 99.8% fossil) the BEV emits 37.8 t CO2e (168 g CO2e/km) against the gasoline car’s 50.6 t (225 g CO2e/km)—a 25% reduction, with the BEV’s 1.9 times higher production emissions repaid at 76,000 km, approximately three years of typical Saudi driving. The advantage rises to 44% on the world-average grid, 53% under Saudi Arabia’s 50% renewable-electricity target for 2030, and 66–80% on the EU and French grids; grid parity would require 991 g CO2e/kWh, above any national grid. The result is robust to hot climate energy consumption (+15%, advantage 25%), Gulf-sourced materials (break-even shortens to 68,000 km), battery capacity (40–80 kWh), and 10,000-run Monte Carlo uncertainty propagation (BEV superior in 99.6% of draws). Electrification is therefore a sound climate strategy even in fossil-grid economies, and its benefit roughly doubles with the announced power-sector transition.