Comparative Evaluation of ITU-R P.452 and Parabolic-Equation Models for VHF Tropospheric Ducting over Arabian Gulf Maritime Links

The maritime desert boundary layer over Bahrain often supports anomalous tropospheric propagation. This includes super-refraction and surface-based ducting. These conditions increase the risk of transboundary VHF interference across the Arabian Gulf. This study presents a descriptor-based, empirically anchored propagation-sensitivity framework for assessing these propagation risks under data-limited conditions. It provides a practical alternative in regions where long-term real-world propagation measurements are difficult to obtain. Representative regional refractivity profiles are synthesized from localized thermodynamic variables. Long-term observations from Cyprus are used as an empirical benchmark for severe anomalous propagation. The simulation framework combines ITU-R P.452 anomalous-propagation screening, two-dimensional ray tracing, and wide-angle split-step Fourier parabolic-equation (PE) modeling. Validation against 95.5 MHz field-strength measurements from Limassol, Cyprus, collected during anomalous-propagation interference from Middle East transmitters, shows that matched atmospheric profiles can produce path enhancements of up to 11 dB above free-space predictions. The analysis of critical Gulf links identifies severe low-altitude trapping conditions that exceed classical waveguide thresholds. The Doha–Manama and Abu Dhabi–Manama paths show the highest interference potential. The 98.4 MHz channel emerges as the main same-channel coordination concern. The proposed framework provides a physically grounded and meteorologically bounded method for spectrum coordination and interference assessment in coastal desert environments.