Comparative Assessment of Land Stability Analysis of Towns of the Kumaun Himalaya, Uttarakhand

ABSTRACT

The rapid urbanization across the Kumaun Himalaya has made it gradually necessary to evaluate land stability, as unstable land can significantly increase the risks of disasters. The present study conducts a comparative analysis of the three rapidly growing towns of Kumaun Himalaya, namely Almora, Haldwani, and Nainital, using a comparative geospatial framework that applies the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Shannon Entropy (SE) approach. Thirteen conditioning factors influencing land stability were considered to delineate stability zones. The final stability maps divide the area into five stability classes. The stability assessment of Haldwani town using the AHP technique reveals that nearly 42% of its area lies in the very low to moderate stability zone. Likewise, for Almora town, it shows about 60% of the area that comes under very low to moderate stable zones. Similarly, for Nainital town, it shows about 62% of its area lies in very low to moderate stable zones. On the contrary, the stability analysis results of the SE technique reveal that Almora falls under 50% of the total area in very low to moderate stability zones. Haldwani town highlights ~47% of the area lies in very low to moderate stability zones. Nainital town demonstrates about 53% of the area in very low to moderate stability classes. The AHP and SE models were validated using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, which yielded Area Under Curve (AUC) values of 0.879 for Haldwani, 0.763 for Nainital, and 0.794 for Almora for the SE model, and 0.948 for Haldwani, 0.742 for Almora, and 0.769 for Nainital for the AHP model. The comparison of AHP and SE results enhances reliability, offering valuable guidance for sustainable urban development and hazard mitigation in the Himalayan region.