Comparative Assessment of Energy Recovery Routes for Circularity and Decarbonization in Emerging Economies: A Brazilian Case Study

This study, based on an 11-year historical series (2014–2024) from a Brazilian municipality, evaluated the technical, environmental, and preliminary economic potential of energy recovery routes for circularity and decarbonization in municipal solid waste management within an emerging economy context. The mass flow was characterized, and three different scenarios were modeled for the treatment of rejects—Refuse-Derived Fuel (RDF), landfill biogas recovery, and Waste-to-Energy (WtE) incineration. Results indicate that, despite a 31.75% diversion rate of household solid waste from final landfill disposal through sorting, recycling, and composting, approximately 105,000 tons of high-calorific rejects (3332 kcal/kg) are landfilled annually. The comparative analysis revealed that the WtE route offers the highest electricity generation potential (62,982 MWh/year), gross revenue potential from electricity generation, and substantial mass reduction (75%). However, project-level feasibility remains dependent on investment, operating, financing, and regulatory conditions. Conversely, the RDF route faces economic barriers because, in the analyzed regional market, cement plants charge industrial acceptance fees for receiving RDF, rather than purchasing it as a fuel, while landfill disposal remains comparatively low-cost. The findings indicate that, in the analyzed municipal context, relying solely on landfill optimization is insufficient for decarbonization, supporting a hybrid model that integrates thermal treatment of rejects while preserving social inclusion through waste picker cooperatives, with potential relevance to municipalities in emerging economies characterized by comparable landfill dependence, waste composition, and social recycling structures.