Commercial Fleet Electrification for More Equitable Air Quality, Health, and Climate Benefits

Abstract

Electric vehicles (EVs) are central to low-carbon transportation, yet research has predominantly focused on passenger vehicles, leaving the climate, air quality, and equity implications of commercial fleet electrification underexplored. Here, we quantify the climate and health impacts of electrifying different vehicle fleets by integrating fleet projections, hybrid life-cycle assessment, and air quality modeling for 367 Chinese cities in 2023 and 2030. Although commercial EVs (electric trucks and public fleets) account for less than 10% of China’s EV stock, they deliver 48% of climate benefits and 60% of health benefits in 2023, increasing to 52% and 71% by 2030, with electric trucks driving most future gains. While electric trucks are not yet climate-beneficial in some coal-intensive regions, ongoing grid decarbonization will address the climate concern soon nationwide. By 2030, the poorest 50% of the population will receive only 33% of health benefits from passenger EV adoption, but nearly half (47%) from electrifying trucks and public fleets. Unlike the uneven, income-biased health benefits from passenger EVs, electrifying commercial fleets yields dominant and more equitable gains, highlighting it as an efficient and just pathway toward low-carbon mobility.