Co-Developing climate change adaptation strategies through participatory multi-criteria decision analysis: a case study from Waterberg District, South Africa

ABSTRACT

Semi-arid regions in South Africa face intensifying climate threats to water security and agriculture. The 2014–2016 drought resulted in a 30% reduction in rainfall, which highlighted key vulnerabilities in water supply, agriculture, and climate resilience. This study presents a participatory co-development process for adaptation planning in the Waterberg District, Limpopo Province. Using mixed methods, including 18-month stakeholder workshops and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, we engaged communities, traditional authorities, farmers, and government to prioritize adaptation strategies. From 25 co-identified actions, systematic evaluation yielded seven agricultural and eight domestic priorities. Drought destocking and alternative water sourcing ranked highest for agriculture, while waste management, information sharing, and water use efficiency ranked highest for domestic use (all scored 1.0). All strategies scored maximally for importance, urgency, and no-regret characteristics, with low standard deviations (<3%) indicating consensus. Critically, communication deficits among government, NGOs, and communities reduced the political acceptability of otherwise sound strategies, revealing institutional trust as a prerequisite for implementation. A comparative analysis showed that Vhembe's stakeholder forums and institutional support created better conditions for adaptation than Waterberg's weak capacity, despite strong grassroots engagement. The study demonstrates that participatory co-development can generate context-specific, stakeholder-supported coping strategies, but implementation requires supportive institutions, adequate resources, and multi-level governance.