Climatology and trends of observed daily and hourly extreme precipitation in the French Alps

The French Alps, characterised by complex topography and diverse climatic influences, are highly vulnerable to extreme precipitation events, which can trigger floods and landslides with significant socio-economic impacts. While local stakeholders report a perceived increase in sub-daily extreme precipitation events, such a trend has not yet been statistically confirmed based on observations. In this study, we apply extreme value theory to long time series of in situ observations of daily and hourly precipitation to provide an updated climatology and trend analysis of precipitation extremes across the region. We focus on 20-year return levels to analyse rare, potentially high-impact events and show that precipitation extremes exhibit distinct spatial patterns with marked differences between daily and hourly timescales. By examining trends at monthly and seasonal levels and making use of an existing weather pattern classification, we gain a deeper understanding of the dynamics underlying these trends. For extremes of daily precipitation intensity, we observe strong positive trends in the southern French Alps and negative trends in the north, primarily driven by a stronger influence of southerly (Mediterranean) flows in autumn. The spatial patterns for hourly extremes show more spatially variable trends, and seem to be primarily influenced by local thermodynamic effects potentially linked to e.g. changing moisture availability or changes in surface albedo due to shorter snow cover persistence. This detailed analysis provides important insights for stakeholders who are working on prevention and protection from precipitation-related hazards, underscoring the need for adaptive strategies in response to changing precipitation patterns. It also highlights the importance of region-specific and timescale-specific approaches in future studies of precipitation extremes.