Climate‐driven changes in habitat suitability of two keystone species in Dry Afromontane forests of Ethiopia

Climate change is reshaping global montane forest ecosystems, threatening biodiversity, hydrological regulation and carbon storage sustained by keystone tree species. In Ethiopia's Dry Evergreen Afromontane forests, climate‐driven changes in temperature and moisture regimes can alter the persistence, co‐occurrence and ecological functions of dominant woody species, with critical implications for forest resilience and restoration planning in this Eastern Afromontane biodiversity hotspot.

Three hypotheses were formulated and tested. An ensemble species distribution modelling approach integrating Maximum Entropy, Random Forest and Boosted Regression Trees was applied to evaluate current and future habitat suitability for two co‐occurring keystone trees, Juniperus procera and Olea europaea subsp. cuspidata, with contrasting ecological strategies. The models incorporated bioclimatic and topographic predictors under current conditions and future scenarios (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5; 2061–2080). Model evaluation metrics confirmed high accuracy in predicting distributions, niche overlap and suitability‐weighted elevational shifts.

The two species exhibited strongly divergent responses to future climate change. J. procera , a climate‐sensitive montane specialist, is projected to experience substantial contraction, fragmentation and upward displacement of suitable habitat, with highly suitable areas declining by 30.9% under SSP2‐4.5 and 47.6% under SSP5‐8.5. Its elevational shifts range from 85.05 m (SSP2‐4.5) to 139.34 m (SSP5‐8.5). In contrast, O. europaea , a drought‐tolerant generalist, faces a more moderate decline in highly suitable habitat, decreasing by 10.99% under SSP2‐4.5 and 29.55% under SSP5‐8.5.I is expected to expand into newly suitable areas while exhibiting upslope shifts of 68.72 m (SSP2‐4.5) and 137.54 m (SSP5‐8.5).

Geographic niche overlap remains high in all scenarios, but environmental niche overlap decreases progressively, indicating increasing ecological separation. Seasonality of temperature and precipitation, along with elevation, is the main driver of this differentiation, progressively restructuring montane forests by disadvantaging climate‐sensitive specialists.

Synthesis and applications . Climate change will intensify functional asymmetry among co‐occurring keystone trees, impacting ecosystem services. Conservation policies must shift from uniform forest management to species‐specific, climate‐adaptive strategies that protect high‐elevation refugia, maintain elevational connectivity and spatially target restoration efforts within national management frameworks.