Climate Vulnerability of Australian Seafood Systems: A National Assessment of Exposure and Adaptive Capacity

ABSTRACT

Marine waters are becoming warmer and acidified and experiencing more intense and longer heatwaves under climate change. These changes are already impacting marine ecosystems and seafood production, which are vital for supporting food security and economic productivity. For Australia, a national‐scale assessment of exposure to climate hazards is needed to support climate‐resilient ecosystem management across one of the world's largest exclusive economic zones. Commercial fishing relies on healthy ecosystems and is one of Australia's most important sectors in terms of cultural identity and regional value. However, Australian fisheries and aquaculture are increasingly exposed to climate‐driven changes in ocean conditions, creating substantial risks for marine ecosystems, seafood production and coastal economies. We assess the exposure of Australia's seafood sector to climate change using high‐resolution climate projections and ecosystem model outputs under three global warming levels (1.5°C, 2°C and 3°C futures). Our findings reveal that the entire Australian exclusive economic zone is exposed, with cumulative exposure highest for regions with a large continental shelf. The biomass available to fisheries is projected to decline. Negative impacts from climate change are generally expected for fisheries and aquaculture production. Despite some evidence of adaptation, uneven adaptive capacity across sectors and jurisdictions presents challenges for climate resilience. This study underscores the urgency of global mitigation efforts to reduce risk, coordinated adaptation strategies, improved coastal hazard modelling and ecological risk assessments to safeguard the future of fisheries and aquaculture industries under climate change.