Climate Variability, Cultivated Area, and Landscape Change: Implications for Rice Yield Dynamics in Asutifi South District, Ghana

Rice productivity in rain‐fed systems is embedded in interacting climatic, production, and landscape contexts. This study examined rainfall, air temperature, cultivated area, rice yield, and broader landscape change in the Asutifi South District, Ghana, from 1993 to 2022. Agricultural and meteorological records were analyzed using Mann–Kendall tests, Sen’s slope estimates, Pearson correlations, and an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, while GIS mapping and matched Landsat imagery were used to characterize regional spatial context. Rainfall, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, cultivated area, and rice yield increased significantly. Rice yield correlated positively with early‐season rainfall ( r  = 0.247), mid‐season rainfall ( r  = 0.300), October rainfall ( r  = 0.338), maximum temperature ( r  = 0.446), minimum temperature ( r  = 0.077), and cultivated area ( r  = 0.753). The ARDL results indicated positive long‐run associations of rice yield with seasonal rainfall anomaly and cultivated area and a negative association with maximum temperature; 62.4% of short‐run disequilibrium was corrected annually. GIS and remote‐sensing evidence indicated a 28.8%–53.3% decline in the regional dark‐green canopy proxy between 1989 and 2023, consistent with documented forest loss and agricultural expansion in the wider Ahafo–Goaso landscape. This spatial evidence is interpreted as contextual support for plausible thermal and hydrological pathways, not as evidence that landscape change caused the observed rice‐yield dynamics. The findings support climate adaptation and sustainable intensification while identifying land‐use planning and landscape restoration as complementary, precautionary considerations.