Climate policy under economic uncertainty: confidence in the welfare state and support for carbon taxation

Abstract

The climate crisis is urgent, yet public support for fossil fuel taxation remains low. Existing research attributes this to material interests, particularly concerns about the regressive nature of consumption taxes. This connects to the literature on the emerging “eco-social divide,” which emphasizes tensions between environmental and equity concerns while leaving potential synergies understudied. Drawing on policy feedback theory, we argue that satisfaction with existing social policies shapes how individuals perceive the risks of carbon taxation. Using original survey data from seven European countries ( n = 10,968), we find that income difficulty and dissatisfaction with social policies reduce support for fossil fuel taxation. Perceived employment risk, contrary to expectations, is positively associated with support, and this relationship is amplified by social policy satisfaction. Confidence in welfare institutions therefore appears to facilitate support for climate policy, pointing to social protection and policy feedback as central to building coalitions for the green transition.