Climate or Oil: the Arab Dilemma

The article studies the influence of the climate agenda on the policy of Arab oil-producing countries. The authors investigate the transformation of the climate agenda into a mechanism used to compensate for the growing geopolitical influence of Arab oil-producing countries. This mechanism includes – but is not limited to – trends formed by global climate agreements to abandon hydrocarbon fuels and devaluation in the oil industry. The new types of risks for the oil industry that have emerged in recent years and are tied to the climate agenda are analyzed, including the EU initiative to introduce a carbon tax on imported carbon-intensive products (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism). Fundamentally new moments in the policy of the Persian Gulf countries in 2022 have been revealed: an attempt to promote their own version of the climate agenda and the concept of “zero emissions”. The conflicting interests of Arab countries and the united West are demonstrated at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP28, Dubai) held in 2023 in the United Arab Emirates, including the reaction of leading Western politicians and media to the format of the parallel business events, including those with the participation of oil sector companies. The article analyzes the tactics of Arab oil-producing countries at the global climate negotiations within the UN and new approaches of BRICS to energy transition. The prospect of transformation of the Arab countries’ role in the global climate agenda is assessed in the light of the fundamental changes in the world order that manifested themselves in 2022.