Climate-Driven Range Shifts of Chinese Wolfberry (Lycium chinense Miller) in China: Implications from a Global Niche Model

Chinese wolfberry (Lycium chinense Miller) is a vital medicinal plant and a key species for ecological restoration. While Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are commonly used to predict habitat suitability, they often rely exclusively on native occurrence data, potentially underestimating a species’ climatic niche breadth under assumptions of niche conservatism. This study aims to evaluate the global climatic tolerance of Chinese wolfberry by integrating occurrence data from both native and introduced ranges. We assess the impact of climate change on its potential range shifts in China and determine whether native-only models underestimate the species’ climatic tolerance. We compiled 984 high-quality global distribution points (536 native, 448 introduced). We compared climatic niche breadth derived from native-only data with that from global data. Using MaxEnt modeling, we projected the global niche model onto China under current conditions and under four future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) for the year 2070 to analyze changes in habitat suitability and centroid migration. The study confirms that relying solely on native data significantly underestimates the climatic tolerance of Chinese wolfberry, particularly for thermal variables (e.g., mean temperature of the warmest/coldest month). The global model, driven primarily by the coldness index, annual biotemperature, and humidity index, showed excellent performance (AUC = 0.952). Currently, highly suitable habitats cover approximately 44% of China’s land area. However, future projections indicate a severe decline in habitat quality. While the total suitable area remains relatively stable, the proportion of highly suitable habitat within the total habitat is projected to drop from 62.6% to as low as 19% under high-emission scenarios. The centroid of highly suitable habitats is expected to migrate multidirectionally at an annual rate of 0.97–2.42 km·a−1, while the altitudinal centroid shows a drastic upward shift of up to 7.24 m·a−1 under the SSP585 scenario. Integrating global occurrence data provides a more robust estimate of the ecological tolerance of Chinese wolfberry. Future climate change poses a significant threat to the quality of suitable habitats in China, necessitating adaptive management strategies such as assisted migration to northern refugia and the implementation of climate-smart agricultural practices to sustain the economic and ecological value of this species.