DOI: 10.11648/j.ijssam.20261103.12 ISSN: 2575-5803

Climate-Driven Differential Dynamics of Vector-Borne Diseases in the Niger-Delta: Mathematical Modelling and Environmental Health Policy Implications

Suit Oghenerhoro, Henry Egbogho
Show PDF Cite
Climate change has become one of the biggest environmental problems shaping public health worldwide, mainly when viewing its impact on vector-borne diseases. In the Niger-Delta area of Nigeria, there are ecological conditions that promote the increase of disease vectors, like mosquitoes, sandflies, and ticks, and this is a significant concern. Higher temperatures, shifting rainfall trends, repeated flooding episodes, and humidity swings have altered vector ecology and increased the danger of disease spread. In this work, a climate-sensitive host vector mathematical model is developed to explore how vector-borne diseases change over time under evolving environmental conditions in the Niger-Delta region. The model is developed based on a system of nonlinear differential equations that tracks the interactions between people in susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered groups, along with climate- dependent vector populations. In this setting, several core mathematical properties are confirmed, like positivity and boundedness, plus the existence and uniqueness of solutions. Then the disease-free equilibrium, as well as the endemic equilibrium, are derived and analyzed. With the next-generation matrix method, the basic reproduction number is computed, and it is shown to act as the key quantity that determines whether the disease continues inside the population. Finally, the local stability study indicates that the disease-free equilibrium stays locally asymptotically stable as long as the reproduction threshold is held strictly below one. The numerical investigations across different climate settings, show that rising temperature, higher rainfall intensity, and greater humidity tend to raise vector abundance and disease prevalence in a noticeable way. The sensitivity analysis, on the other hand, points out vector recruitment rate and climate- modified transmission coefficients as the leading drivers behind how quickly disease spreads. The results also show that using integrated vector management along with environmental sanitation, plus climate adaptive interventions, can substantially lower infection prevalence and the risk that outbreaks will happen. Overall, these findings give measurable evidence for reinforcing environmental health policies, and also for building climate adaptation strategies in the Niger-Delta region. The basic structure that was developed in this work serves as a practical decision support instrument, prepared for policymakers, public health agencies, and environmental regulators who are professionally engaged in prevention efforts and climate resilience planning.

More from our Archive