Climate Change Reshapes Habitat Suitability of Two Fungus‐Growing Termites With Contrasting Modes of Termitomyces Symbiont Transmission in Côte d’Ivoire (West Africa)

ABSTRACT

Climate change is increasingly reshaping species distributions and ecological interactions, yet its effects on obligate mutualisms remain poorly understood. One of the most remarkable examples is the ancient symbiosis between fungus‐growing termites (Macrotermitinae) and their obligate fungal partners of the genus Termitomyces , a mutualism that underpins nutrient cycling, organic matter decomposition, soil engineering and ecosystem productivity throughout sub‐Saharan Africa. Whether contrasting modes of fungal symbiont transmission influence the resilience of fungus‐growing termites to climate change has, however, received little attention. Here, we investigate the current and future habitat suitability of two ecologically important Macrotermes species in Côte d'Ivoire, Macrotermes bellicosus , which vertically transmits its Termitomyces symbiont and Macrotermes subhyalinus , which acquires its fungal partner through horizontal transmission. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling based on 162 and 127 occurrence records, respectively, and eight carefully selected environmental predictors, we quantified current habitat suitability, identified the principal environmental drivers of species distributions, projected distributional shifts under SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 climate scenarios for 2050 and identified climatically stable refugia of conservation importance. Habitat suitability was primarily explained by the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Human Footprint Index, while annual temperature, annual precipitation, precipitation seasonality and the minimum temperature of the coldest month also contributed substantially to model performance. Climate projections predicted an overall decline in highly suitable habitats for both species, although their responses differed markedly. Whereas M. bellicosus is expected to maintain a relatively stable distribution, M. subhyalinus is projected to undergo pronounced spatial redistribution under future climatic conditions. These contrasting responses suggest that fungal symbiont transmission mode may represent an overlooked biological trait influencing species resilience to climate change. More broadly, this study provides novel evidence that host‐symbiont interactions should be explicitly incorporated into predictive species distribution models and conservation planning to improve forecasts of biodiversity responses to global environmental change.