Climate Change Intensifies Cropland Drought Exposure in the Indus River Basin During the 21st Century

ABSTRACT

Drought poses a significant threat to agriculture in the transboundary Indus River Basin (IRB), which supports over 300 million people through direct and indirect dependence on agriculture. With limited cropland and growing climatic stress, the basin faces an increasing risk to food security. Yet, comprehensive assessments of cropland exposure to drought under a changing climate and socioeconomic conditions remain lacking. This study evaluates present and future cropland exposure to drought across the IRB using cropland data from the Land‐Use Harmonisation dataset (LUH2) and bias‐corrected output from seven CMIP6 global climate models, validated against ERA5 reanalysis data. We examined a baseline period (1995–2014) and three future time slices (2021–2040, 2041–2060 and 2081–2100) under seven Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1‐1.9 to SSP5‐8.5). Drought characteristics are quantified using the Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) combined with run theory, incorporating CO ₂ emissions. Results indicate that drought frequency is increasing in the future across the emission scenarios relative to the baseline. Cropland exposure displays pronounced spatial heterogeneity and a clear dynamic evolution over time, with the highest concentrations in the central IRB, particularly the Indo‐Pak Punjab and riparian corridors. By 2081–2100, annual cumulative exposed cropland area expands from 1875.3 to 2886.5 km ² , representing an increase of 71.8%–88.1% relative to the baseline. Furthermore, attribution analysis shows that climate change dominates the increase in exposure through 2060, whereas cropland emerges as the primary driver by 2081–2100. These findings underscore the need for dual‐track drought risk‐management: climate‐focused adaptation for near‐term and integrated land‐use planning for long‐term resilience to safeguard food security in the IRB.