Climate Change Increases Water Scarcity Risks and Adaptation Needs in China

Abstract

Increasing droughts are exacerbating the imbalance between water supply and demand, complicating efforts to secure reliable water and food supplies for key sectors. However, limited understanding of how water use responds to drought constrains effective risk management and climate adaptation. Using monthly water use and meteorological data across mainland China from 1981 to 2020, we developed an event‐scale framework integrating time series decomposition, deep learning, and event coincidence analysis to quantify sector‐specific responses to meteorological droughts. Droughts impacted a relatively small portion of land (14.9% of China mainland) but accounted for a disproportionately large share of water use (47.4%). Northern basins were particularly sensitive, with water use rising by 5.67% (4.49%–6.37%) during drought events. Irrigation emerged as the primary driver of water use changes, with demand increasing as drought intensity rises. Projected intensification of droughts suggests that by 2100, more than 10% of affected regions could face high water scarcity risks under SSP1‐2.6, which may increase to 25.5% under SSP5‐8.5. These findings highlight pronounced spatial disparities in drought responses and emphasize the need to incorporate water use dynamics into climate risk assessments.