Climate change impacts on the predicted performance of optimized building-integrated photovoltaics

Building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) are a promising strategy for enhancing building energy performance and reducing carbon emissions. However, most design optimization studies rely on historical climate datasets that may fail to capture the operating conditions buildings will experience under climate change. This study develops a computational framework for the multi-objective optimization of BIPV envelope systems using future climate projections from the CanESM5 model under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. We analyze two system configurations, awning shades and thin-film window coatings, across four cities with diverse climates (Berlin, Los Angeles, Chicago, Singapore), comparing results from conventional EPW files, NASA 2023 historical data, and 2046–2050 climate scenarios. Optimization integrates electricity generation, thermal loads, and daylighting quality to capture building-level trade-offs. Results show that traditional EPW datasets systematically under-predict BIPV performance, particularly in Berlin and Los Angeles. Under 2046–2050 projected conditions, all four cities exhibit performance gains: substantial in Berlin, Chicago and Los Angeles, and marginal in Singapore, with the largest absolute gains in Los Angeles. By 2050, unshaded windows transition to consistently detrimental for building energy balance. Thin-film coatings achieve optimal outcomes at high absorptance, in the 80–90% range, contrary to current low-absorption design practice. Within the CanESM5 SSP3-7.0 scenario examined, these findings show that projected climate conditions can substantially reshape the modeled performance landscape of BIPV systems, emphasizing the need for forward-looking climate projections in building design optimization and the growing importance of BIPV for climate-adaptive and resilient urban buildings.