Climate change impacts on global wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) production: A comprehensive meta‐analysis of stressors, risks, and adaptation strategies

Abstract

Climate change is exerting profound and multidimensional pressures on global wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) production. Rising temperatures, higher vapor pressure deficit, and more frequent heatwaves reduce yields through strong, phenology‐dependent effects, with flowering and grain filling identified as the most vulnerable stages. Compound heat–drought events disproportionately depress grain number and weight, while erratic precipitation marked by prolonged dry spells, intense rainfall, and waterlogging further destabilizes yield and degrades soil fertility. Meta‐analytic evidence shows wheat yield reductions exceeding 50% under drought and ∼23% under waterlogging, with associated declines in grain quality. Elevated CO ₂ enhances photosynthesis and biomass in optimal conditions but fails to compensate for warming or drought and often lowers grain protein and mineral concentrations. Soil degradation, salinity, and nutrient imbalance are intensifying, while warming accelerates pest survival, reproduction, and geographic expansion, increasing biotic stress risks. Despite these challenges, multiple adaptation pathways demonstrate strong effectiveness. Drought‐tolerant cultivars, optimized sowing dates, deficit irrigation, mulching, conservation agriculture, and soil restorative practices significantly improve resilience. Precision agriculture, unmanned aerial vehicle remote sensing, Internet of Things‐enabled monitoring, and artificial intelligence (AI)‐driven decision‐support tools enhance early stress detection and management precision. Economic evidence consistently shows high returns from climate‐smart interventions. Strengthening policy coherence, climate‐informed services, and agricultural financing is essential to scale adaptation and secure wheat production under a warming climate.