Climate Change and Projected Precipitation Patterns in the Canary Islands: A Resilience Framework for Macaronesian Archipelagos

ABSTRACT

Island ecosystems are highly vulnerable to climate change, with reduced and altered precipitation patterns posing significant challenges to freshwater availability and water resource management. However, the study of climate change at the island scale is made difficult by the lack of reliable data at small scales. This is the case of the Canary Islands, where the expected decrease in precipitation will pose significant challenges to water resource management. This study uses the Fundación para la Investigación del Clima (FICLIMA) statistical downscaling method to analyse the climate situation in the region. Specifically, the precipitation forecast for each of the Canary Islands is analysed, on the basis of four scenarios proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change within the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, in the near future, in the medium term, and in the long term, with high resolution (100 m). Although changes in precipitation are more uncertain than projections of other variables such as temperature, (i) climate models project a decrease in total annual precipitation in the Canary Islands by 2100. The results indicate (ii) moderate reductions in the western islands (which are wetter), and (iii) significant reductions in the eastern islands (the driest in the archipelago), with decreases of up to 30% in Fuerteventura and Lanzarote by the end of the century under pessimistic climate scenarios. This study provides valuable information for managing water resources in the face of climate change while promoting long‐term flexibility.