Circular Economy Pathways and Green GDP Convergence: A Scenario‐Based Comparative Analysis of China, Singapore, and Malaysia

ABSTRACT

Conventional gross domestic product (GDP) remains the dominant indicator of economic performance. Nevertheless, it systematically excludes environmental degradation and natural resource depletion, potentially overstating the sustainability and quality of economic growth. This study investigates how alternative circular economy (CE) implementation pathways may influence the long‐term relationship between conventional GDP and Green GDP in China, Singapore, and Malaysia. Using a comparative scenario‐based quantitative framework, the analysis projects GDP and Green GDP trajectories from 2025 to 2040 under four CE implementation scenarios: Business‐as‐Usual, Partial Implementation, Delayed Implementation, and Full Implementation. Model parameters were calibrated using historical environmental, economic, and governance indicators and validated through back‐testing and sensitivity analysis. The results suggest that stronger CE implementation is generally associated with a narrowing GDP–Green GDP gap across all three economies. However, the magnitude and timing of convergence vary according to governance quality, policy maturity, technological readiness, and implementation effectiveness. China and Singapore exhibit faster convergence under stronger implementation scenarios, while Malaysia is projected to demonstrate a more gradual but substantial improvement trajectory. The findings indicate that CE strategies may contribute to environmentally adjusted growth when supported by effective institutions and coordinated policy frameworks. By linking CE transition pathways with Green GDP convergence, the study advances growth‐quality measurement and provides forward‐looking insights into sustainable economic development.