China's Expressways and Population Shrinkage in Township‐level Administrative Units

Abstract

Localized population shrinkage has become an increasingly important global phenomenon, particularly in China's township‐level administrative units. This study constructed innovative indicators, using data for 16,364 township‐level administrative units from the National Population Census of 2010 and 2020, to identify population shrinkage and assess the mitigating effect of expressway accessibility. The results showed proximity to an expressway significantly reduced population shrinkage. This effect was stronger in economically developed areas, in units located closer to county or municipal government seats, coastlines, or interprovincial borders, and in towns (zhen) rather than townships (xiang). The mitigating effect increased with the length of time an expressway was in operation. Mechanism analysis indicated that expressways can reduce population shrinkage by promoting nonagricultural industrial development and enhancing location suitability for development zones. Policy suggestions include improving the identification of population shrinkage, adopting differentiated town and township development measures, prioritizing expressway accessibility improvements in shrinking areas, and supporting development zones to promote nonagricultural industrial agglomeration.