Charting a Transformational Course Toward a Safe and Just Future: The Earth Commission's Contribution
Johan Rockström, Fatima Denton, Albert V. Norström, Jesse F. Abrams, Lubna Alam, David I. Armstrong McKay, Xuemei Bai, Govindasamy Bala, Chris Boulton, Wendy J. Broadgate, Stuart E. Bunn, Joshua E. Buxton, Juan Camilo Cárdenas, Raimon C. Ylla‐Català, Fabrice DeClerck, Natalie Davis, Donovan P. Dennis, Miriam L. Diamond, Carl Folke, Charlotte Kendra Gotangco Gonzales, Georgia Graells, Joyeeta Gupta, Syezlin Hasan, Lisa Jacobson, Steven J. Lade, Timothy M. Lenton, Sina Loriani, Cornelia Ludwig, Pablo A. Marquet, Qondi Moyo, Aditi Mukherji, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, David Obura, Taikan Oki, Daniel Ospina, Maria Fernanda Peña, Laura Pereira, Alexander Popp, Keywan Riahi, Maria del Mar Rojas, Anindita Sarkar, Anna Shalin, Ben Stewart‐Koster, Bo Su, Rashid Sumaila, Thejna Tharammal, Luc van Vliet, Detlef van Vuuren, Peter Verburg, Zhanyun Wang, Ricarda Winkelmann, Cunde Xiao, Caroline ZimmAbstract
Humans are now operating well outside the planetary conditions under which social and economic development has been possible. A precondition for securing equitable access to this prosperity is to safeguard the stability of the Earth system. The situation is urgent—we need a swift and profound shift in direction—a collective transformation. In response, the Earth Commission has developed a science‐based framework that integrates biophysical limits with justice considerations, aiming to enable human wellbeing for all. The Earth Commission's first assessment showed that multiple safe and just Earth system boundaries have already been transgressed, threatening the resilience of the planet and the well‐being of billions. This paper outlines the vision and scientific strategy for the Earth Commission's second phase (2024–2027), which focuses on advancing this framework and translating it into actionable budgets and exploring transformation pathways toward a safe and just future. Key components include expanding the safe and just boundary assessment to currently under‐assessed Earth system processes (e.g., novel entities and ocean change), integrating justice more deeply into the framework, modeling interactions between boundaries and tipping points, and developing practical approaches to cross‐scale translation and transformation. Special attention is given to the structural inequalities and power dynamics that shape both environmental degradation and our capacity to act. Through coordinated research, interdisciplinary collaboration, and stakeholder engagement, the Earth Commission seeks to provide knowledge to guide collective efforts toward transforming to a safe and just space for both people and the planet.