Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Spatial Agglomeration Evolution in China’s Logistics Industry: An Analysis Based on City-Level Panel Data

The past few years has witnessed the rapid development of China’s logistics industry. However, the industry still faces problems such as uneven regional development, low-cost efficiency, insufficient technology application, and pressure for green transformation. To support more effective policy and strategic planning, this study used composite location entropy, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and kernel density estimation to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of logistics industry agglomeration based on China’s city-level panel data from 2010 to 2023. Geographic detectors and geographically weighted regression were used to explore its driving mechanisms from multiple perspectives. The results indicated that (1) China’s logistics industry agglomeration exhibited a decreasing gradient from east to west and the regional disparities gradually narrowed down over time. (2) China’s logistics industry showed significantly positive spatial autocorrelation, characterized mainly by high-high and low-low clusters. Northeastern China experienced the most active and tortuous local spatial evolution of logistics agglomeration, while Eastern China exhibited high tortuosity but stable spatial structure. Western China showed a smooth evolution, and Central China followed a relatively independent evolutionary path. Spatially, China’s logistics industry presented a pattern of high concentration in the southeast and sparse distribution in the northwest, with high-value zones expanding toward the central and western regions. (3) Transportation accessibility was the primary factor influencing logistics industry agglomeration, and the interaction among factors was stronger than the effect of individual factors. Specifically, the degree of openness exhibited a driving pattern centered on coastal areas and decreasing towards inland regions; the level of commercial development showed a positive correlation in the west and a negative correlation in the east; the spatial pattern of transportation capacity shifted from a pronounced east–west polarization to a more fragmented multi-cluster distribution; and transportation accessibility demonstrated spatial heterogeneity, with positive correlation in the southeast coastal areas and negative correlation in the west.