Changes in Personal Mobility Crash Patterns and Composition Before and After the 2021 Strengthening of Safety Regulations in Seoul: Evidence from Police-Reported Crash Data, 2017–2024

Personal mobility (PM) devices have expanded rapidly as an urban transport mode supporting short-distance travel and first- and last-mile access to public transport, while conflicts involving PM users, pedestrians, and other road users have emerged as an important traffic-safety concern. This study reconstructed police-reported PM crash records from Seoul for 2017–2024 into a crash-level dataset of 2398 crashes and examined changes in crash composition and monthly crash-count trajectories around the strengthening of PM safety regulations on 13 May 2021. Grouped-binomial models using monthly outcome and non-outcome counts were treated as the primary analysis. The descriptive PM–pedestrian share increased from 42.9% before the regulation to 49.7% after the regulation. However, the grouped-binomial models did not identify statistically significant PM–pedestrian or severe-or-fatal level or slope changes. The only statistically significant post-regulation composition term in the full-period model was a declining late-night slope; this term was not significant under the conservative month-level HC3 covariance check in the January 2019 sensitivity window. Segmented Poisson models were retained as secondary, descriptive, and exploratory analyses. Observed post-regulation counts were lower than the trajectory obtained by extrapolating the pre-regulation trend; however, the counterfactual became implausibly large within two to three years, so the model could not distinguish a regulatory discontinuity from the natural deceleration or saturation of PM diffusion and other concurrent temporal changes. Among crashes with known helmet-use status, no statistically detectable pre/post change was observed, and license type was not recorded before the regulation. The evidence therefore does not establish either a beneficial or adverse causal effect of the regulation. PM safety policy should combine user-oriented enforcement with multi-indicator monitoring, pedestrian-conflict management, continuous and clearly separated PM travel space, and targeted monitoring of late-night single-vehicle crashes.