Challenges in Conservation Effectiveness on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau: An Integrated Assessment Framework for Endemic Plant Species and Spatial Prioritisation
Tao Cheng, Mingjing Tang, Zhimin Li, Yazhou Zhang, Wenguang Sun, Jinming HuABSTRACT
Aim
To evaluate the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) in conserving endemic seed plant diversity on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) under climate change, and to identify current and future conservation gaps through Zonation‐based spatial prioritisation.
Location
Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China.
Methods
We modelled potential distributions of 2466 endemic plant species using MaxEnt under current conditions and three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5) for 2021–2040 and 2081–2100. Species richness was quantified via probabilistic stacking with 1000 Bernoulli trials, and spatial conservation priorities were identified using Zonation, integrating richness projections with human footprint data. Model robustness was assessed through multi‐GCM validation and sensitivity analyses of alternative weighting schemes.
Results
Only ~5% of observed and ~10% of modelled high‐richness grid cells fall within existing PAs, and this deficit persists under all future climate scenarios. Projected richness increases across most of the plateau co‐occur with substantial compositional turnover and acute habitat contraction for cold‐adapted specialists in the arid northwest. Under high emissions, priority areas concentrate in the southeastern Hengduan Mountains and the northeastern Qaidam–Qilian region, where PA overlap remains minimal.
Main Conclusions
The QTP PA network under‐represents endemic plant diversity under both current and future climates. Our spatially explicit assessment provides an evidence base for aligning PA expansion with the ‘30 × 30’ target and offers a transferable framework for alpine conservation planning.