CFD Modelling and Perturbation-Based Analytical Approach for Rapid Tank Farm Failure Time Prediction Under Wind-Influenced Fire-Induced Domino Effects

Fire-induced domino effects in tank farms can be catastrophic, particularly under wind conditions. However, due to multiple evolutionary stages, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD)-based modelling of wind-influenced, fire-induced domino effects and tank farm Time to Failure (TTF) calculation remain computationally expensive. This study addresses this gap by using Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) to model fire-induced domino effects in a tank farm and perform detailed tank farm TTF calculations across multiple wind speeds and primary pool fire scenarios. The FDS results showed that increasing wind speed from 0 to 8 m/s altered domino escalation, increasing incident heat flux on the downwind in-line tank by more than sevenfold (a 35% reduction in tank farm TTF). A new perturbation-based analytical formulation was then proposed for rapid determination of tank farm TTF under wind effects, without requiring complete CFD simulations of pool fire escalation. The formulation updates tank farm TTF under the no-wind baseline solution with wind-influenced perturbative correction terms. The proposed formulation agreed with the detailed CFD modelling-based calculation, with a mean relative error of 2.8% across all primary fire scenarios and wind conditions. This formulation provides a practical basis for rapid assessment of domino effects due to pool fire under wind conditions. However, it is calibrated for one specific six-tank configuration and crosswind directions and is not yet general.