CFD-Assisted Validation of Weibull-Based Wind-Speed Reconstruction Using OpenFOAM

Accurate characterization of wind-speed distributions is essential for preliminary wind-resource assessment, vertical wind-profile evaluation, and energy-yield estimation. This study presents a CFD-assisted reconstruction and validation framework that integrates two-parameter Weibull statistics with class-conditioned OpenFOAM v13 simulations to reconstruct wind-speed distributions at different measurement heights. Hourly wind-speed records measured at 10 m and 30 m at the Sakarya–Esentepe station during the period of 2009–2010 were used. The 2009 dataset was employed to estimate the Weibull shape and scale parameters by maximum likelihood estimation, while the 2010 dataset was reserved for independent validation. To ensure methodological consistency between statistical wind characterization and steady CFD modeling, the fitted Weibull distribution was discretized into representative wind-speed classes. For each class, a steady Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes simulation was performed in OpenFOAM under neutral atmospheric boundary-layer assumptions using the standard k–ε turbulence model, a logarithmic inlet velocity profile, and rough-wall boundary treatment. The class-wise CFD velocity responses extracted at 10 m and 30 m were then weighted by the corresponding Weibull class probabilities to reconstruct height-specific wind-speed probability distributions. The reconstructed distributions showed good agreement with the measured and fitted Weibull references. The RMSE values obtained by CFD for measurements at heights of 10 m and 30 m on the measurement mast were 0.45 m s−1 and 0.52 m s−1, respectively, and the Pearson correlation coefficients were 0.97 and 0.96, respectively; these values indicate that the CFD analyses are reliable. For the Lilliefors-adjusted Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistics, there is no value higher than 0.06. The differences between the reference and CFD-reconstructed AEP estimates were +0.40% at 10 m and −1.97% at 30 m. These findings indicate that the proposed Weibull–OpenFOAM framework provides a reproducible engineering approach for CFD-assisted wind-speed distribution reconstruction and height-specific consistency assessment. However, the method should be interpreted as a class-conditioned reconstruction framework rather than a stand-alone transient atmospheric wind prediction model.