Cargo Drones and Road Vehicles for Lightweight, Time‐Sensitive Mid‐Mile Shipments: An Integrated Cost, Reliability, and Operational Emissions Analysis

ABSTRACT

Lightweight, time‐sensitive shipments represent a narrow mid‐mile logistics segment in which cargo drones may complement, rather than replace, road freight. This study develops a scenario‐based analytical framework to compare cargo‐drone, dedicated‐road, consolidated‐road, and hybrid services under common shipment, route, return/repositioning, and service assumptions. Technical feasibility is screened before cost, operational emissions, and reliability are evaluated. Five scenarios examine baseline operation, higher utilization, lower electricity‐grid carbon intensity, weather‐constrained operation, and elevated diesel price. The results show that drone service can reduce operational emissions and cost relative to a dedicated urgent road movement when the mission is technically feasible. However, consolidated road service remains the lowest‐cost option, and road transport retains higher standalone reliability. Hybrid allocation is favored in four feasible scenarios because road backups improve reliability, whereas the weather‐constrained scenario is truck‐favorable due to drone infeasibility. The framework supports selective corridor screening and modal allocation, not general freight substitution.