Carbon Neutrality Potential Embodied in Different Agricultural Management Practices

Agricultural management influences progress towards carbon neutrality through its effects on water consumption, energy use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, few studies have translated policies across sectors into management scenarios and evaluated their combined consequences for the agricultural carbon neutrality. We quantified the water, energy use, and carbon nexus for wheat, rice, and corn production across the North China Plain using 2018 as a baseline scenario. We then evaluated conditional management scenarios informed by China’s 14th Five-Year Plan. The three crop production generated net emissions of 1.8 × 1010 kg C yr−1 in 2018, while cropland net ecosystem productivity offset 16.9% of GHG emissions related to crop production. Energy use was positively correlated with GHG emissions (r = 0.74, p < 0.01). The integrated scenario combining a 30% reduction in nitrogen fertilizer, more efficient nitrogen fertilizer production, sprinkler irrigation, and a 50% crop straw return rate reduced the water footprint, energy use, and GHG emissions by 4.9%, 27.6%, and 39.2%, respectively. By contrast, drip irrigation alone reduced the water footprint but increased energy use by 6.8% and GHG emissions by 12.9%. The results show that water saving measures do not necessarily improve the carbon neutrality when their energy requirements are overlooked. These findings also provide more enlightenment for local policy-makers.