Carbon-Equivalent Emissions from Agricultural and Livestock Production in Inner Mongolia: Dynamics, Associated Factors, and Future Trajectories

Agricultural and livestock production plays an important role in Inner Mongolia, China, but its continued development poses challenges for greenhouse gas mitigation. Using multi-source data from 2005 to 2023, this study integrates the IPCC emission-factor approach, panel STIRPAT modeling, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, and Ridge regression forecasting to quantify carbon-equivalent emissions and emission intensity from selected agricultural and livestock sources, examine emission changes and associated factors, and project future emissions under a trend-continuation scenario (TCS) and a policy-target scenario (PTS). Total emissions increased from 9.8472 Mt C-eq in 2005 to 14.5223 Mt C-eq in 2023, while carbon-equivalent emission intensity declined over the same period. Livestock-related emissions remained dominant, although the contribution of agricultural emissions increased over time, with cattle and sheep accounting for most livestock-related emissions. Panel estimates showed significant positive associations between emissions and year-end rural population, year-end large-livestock inventory, and real agricultural and animal husbandry output value per capita at constant 2005 prices. Monte Carlo analysis showed that emission-factor uncertainty had a notable influence on absolute emission levels, with a coefficient of variation of 9.04% in 2023; enteric-fermentation CH4 emission factors for cattle and sheep were the dominant sources of uncertainty. Among the models compared, Ridge regression showed the strongest overall validation performance. Emissions are projected to continue increasing through 2035 under both the TCS and PTS, reaching 16.5974 and 16.5012 Mt C-eq, respectively, indicating that the currently quantifiable policy constraints alone are insufficient to reverse the projected upward trend. Future mitigation should therefore prioritize major livestock-related emission sources and regionally differentiated management, while further refinement of the emission inventory should focus on developing more regionally representative livestock emission factors.