Carbon Emission Trading, Green Technology Innovation, and Corporate ESG Performance: The Dual Moderation of Executives’ Green Cognition and Environmental Policy Uncertainty

Carbon emission trading is a vital market-based instrument for corporate sustainable development. Treating China’s carbon emission trading pilot as a quasi-natural experiment, this study employs panel data of A-share listed firms in high-carbon industries (2010–2023) and a time-varying difference-in-differences model to examine its effect on corporate ESG performance. The results confirm that carbon trading significantly enhances ESG performance. Beyond this, three key insights emerge. First, both executives’ green cognition and environmental policy uncertainty positively moderate this relationship; notably, a three-way interaction reveals partial substitution between the two moderators at high levels, refining the capability–pressure coupling framework. Second, green technology innovation is a statistically significant but economically weak mediator. This weakness stems from an internal offset—the policy promotes substantive invention patents while suppressing incremental utility model patents—and alternative channels, particularly financing constraints and carbon disclosure quality, which serve as the primary transmission pathways. Third, the policy effect is more pronounced among heavily polluting firms and in eastern and central regions, reflecting differential regulatory exposure. These findings offer practical implications for carbon market expansion, green innovation incentives, regionally differentiated regulation, and the integration of carbon asset management with executives’ green cognition development.