Can the Digital Economy Enhance the Export Competitiveness of Agricultural Products?—An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data from 30 Chinese Provinces

As a new engine of economic development, the digital economy is profoundly reshaping the governance structure and production models of modern agriculture and has increasingly become a significant force driving the high-quality development of agricultural export trade. Based on provincial panel data from 30 Chinese provinces spanning from 2014 to 2023, this paper employs a two-way fixed effects model to systematically examine the statistical association between the digital economy and agricultural export competitiveness. Furthermore, a mediation effects model is adopted to explore the underlying transmission pathways, and a threshold effects model is applied to reveal the nonlinear characteristics of this association, thereby providing a multidimensional analysis of the underlying mechanisms. The empirical results indicate that: (1) there is a significant positive statistical association between the digital economy and agricultural export competitiveness, and this finding remains robust across a series of robustness checks; (2) upgrading of agricultural industrial structure, agricultural technological innovation, and agricultural labor transfer serve as three important transmission pathways through which the digital economy is associated with enhanced export competitiveness; (3) this positive association exhibits regional heterogeneity, with stronger effects observed in central regions and major grain-producing areas; and (4) there is a nonlinear relationship between the digital economy and agricultural export competitiveness. Finally, based on these empirical findings, several policy implications are proposed, including strengthening digital infrastructure construction, enhancing trade openness, cultivating agricultural digital talents, optimizing factor allocation structures, and improving the digital economy governance system, so as to fully unlock the potential space of the positive association between the digital economy and agricultural export competitiveness.