Can Green Finance and Environmental Regulation Weather the Storm? Conditional Effects of Climate Risk Awareness and Firm Size on Agricultural Supply Chain Resilience

Climate risk increasingly threatens agricultural supply chain stability. Green finance (GF) and environmental regulation (ER) are two key policy instruments intended to counter this risk, yet their effectiveness in fostering supply chain resilience (SCR) remains ambiguous. Using panel data from Chinese A-share-listed agricultural firms (2010–2024), this study examines the average and conditional associations of GF, ER, and climate risk awareness (CRA) with SCR via a two-way fixed-effects model, supplemented by instrumental variables, quantile regressions, heterogeneity tests, and interaction models. Text-based CRA is positively associated with SCR. Contemporaneous physical climate risk derived from meteorological observations shows no robust association, whereas its one-period-lagged, economic-scale-adjusted counterpart is significantly negative. Neither GF nor ER exhibits an unconditional linear relationship with SCR, and CRA substantially attenuates the marginal effect of GF. Financing constraints, supply chain concentration, factor allocation efficiency, and innovation intensity do not form stable indirect channels. Taken together, the findings suggest that the relationship between GF, ER, and agricultural SCR does not operate through a single transmission pathway, but may instead be shaped by whether firm-level risk sensing, resource mobilization, operational coordination, and structural reconfiguration form an effective capability configuration.