Burden of Alzheimer's disease and associated risk factors in Pakistan versus other South Asian countries: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Muhammad Safiullah, Muhammad Imaz Bhatti, Anurag Jha, Husam Abu Dawood, Fatima Shahid, Hammad Javaid, Muhammad Nabeel Saddique, Hamza Ashraf, Maria Qadri, Noor ul Ain Saleem, Mishaim Khan, Izza Fatima, Hana J. Abukhadijah, Hashem Abu SerhanIntroduction
Pakistan's aging population and rising prevalence of metabolic and lifestyle risk factors have driven an increasing Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (ADOD) burden. This study provides comprehensive evaluation of ADOD burden in Pakistan over three decades.
Objective
This study provides comprehensive evaluation of ADOD burden in Pakistan over three decades.
Methods
We extracted province-level ADOD data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Joinpoint regression quantified average annual percent changes (AAPCs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model forecasted ADOD trends for the next 30 years.
Results
In 2021, Pakistan ranked second in South Asia for ADOD burden. The age-standardized incidence rate declined from 84.44 (95% UI: [73.08–97.02]) in 1990 to 78.80 (67.99–90.38) in 2021 (AAPC −0.22%, 95% CI: [–0.22 to −0.22]). Meanwhile, age-standardized mortality and DALY rates rose (AAPCs 0.43%, 95% CI: [0.42–0.45]; and 0.22%, 95% CI: [0.21–0.23], respectively).
Conclusions
Pronounced regional disparities and dominant metabolic risk factors underscore the urgent need for targeted prevention and intervention strategies to curb Pakistan's rising ADOD burden.