Blue Economy Dynamics and National Energy Use: A Time-series Analysis for Indonesia

The rapid expansion of Indonesia’s blue economy has accelerated the development of the aquaculture and capture fisheries sectors while simultaneously increasing concerns regarding energy demand and sustainability. This study aims to examine the effects of Aquaculture Production (AP), Capture Fisheries Production (CFP), Casspital Formation (K), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Patent Technology (PT), and Renewable Energy Consumption (REC) on Energy Use (EU) in Indonesia over the period 1995–2020. Annual time-series data were analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to estimate both short-run and long-run relationships. The Bounds Test confirms the existence of a long-run cointegration relationship among the variables. The empirical results reveal that AP, CFP, K, PT, and REC have negative and statistically significant effects on energy use in both the short run and the long run, whereas GDP exerts a positive and significant effect. These findings suggest that technological modernization, productive investment, and renewable energy adoption in the fisheries sector enhance energy efficiency, while economic growth continues to drive national energy demand. The robustness check using the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) estimator produces results consistent with the ARDL estimates, confirming the reliability of the findings. This study contributes to the literature by integrating blue economy indicators, technological innovation, and renewable energy into a unified analytical framework. The findings provide important policy implications for accelerating fisheries modernization, expanding renewable energy utilization, and promoting a sustainable and energy-efficient blue economy in Indonesia.