Beyond the Aggregate: A Strand-by-Strand Professional Development Needs Analysis for Mathematical Modeling in Nigeria's Further Mathematics Curriculum

Knowing that teachers need more training is of limited practical use to curriculum planners unless it is known which specific content demands the most urgent attention, and why. This paper re-analyses teacher training-need data originally collected by Odafe (2017) from a survey of 40 Further Mathematics teachers in Edo South Senatorial District, Nigeria, moving beyond an aggregate summary to an exploratory, strand-by-strand professional development (PD) needs profile for the Mathematical Modelling component of the Further Mathematics Curriculum (FMC). Using the Mathematical Modeling Evaluation Questionnaire I (MMEQ I) and Z-tests of sample proportion with 95% confidence intervals, four content strands were ranked by descending competence: History, Nature and Models of Operations Research (63% competent, 95% CI [48.0%, 78.0%]), Inventory and Replacement Models (50% competent, 95% CI [34.5%, 65.5%]), Modelling and Games Theory (40% competent, 95% CI [24.8%, 55.2%]), and Constructing Models for Real-Life Problems (33% competent, 95% CI [18.4%, 47.6%]). None of the four Z-tests reached statistical significance at α = .05, and confidence intervals for the two middle strands overlapped substantially; the descending pattern is therefore reported as suggestive rather than confirmed. Interpreted, with appropriate caution, through Desimone's (2009) core features of effective professional development, Guskey's (2002) model of teacher change, and Bandura's (1997) self-efficacy theory, the pattern is consistent with training need rising alongside the cognitive demand and applied, open-ended character of the content. The paper proposes a provisional, priority-ordered continuing professional development (CPD) roadmap for the Mathematical Association of Nigeria (MAN), the Science Teachers Association of Nigeria (STAN), and teacher-training institutions, to be validated through larger, confirmatory studies.