Beyond Resilience: Measuring the Livelihood Vulnerability of Commercial Livestock Farmers to Drought in South Africa

ABSTRACT

Climate change continues to increase the frequency and intensity of events, threatening agricultural production, farmers' livelihoods and the achievement of SDGs 1 and 2 (No Poverty and Zero Hunger). This study examined the effect of agricultural drought on the livelihood vulnerability of commercial livestock farmers in the Northern Cape Province of South Africa. The study employed primary data from a random sample of 106 commercial livestock farmers to compute vulnerability using the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Livelihood Vulnerability Index (IPCC‐LVI). Findings show that the LVI scores for ZF Mgcawu, Pixley ka Seme and Namakwa district municipalities in the Northern Cape Province of South Africa were 0.48, 0.48 and 0.46, respectively. The overall IPCC‐LVI scores were 0.17 for ZF Mgcawu, 0.17 for Pixley ka Seme and 0.29 for Namakwa. Commercial livestock farmers exhibited high sensitivity and exposure to drought impacts, with limited adaptive capacity, indicating they cannot recover after such shocks. This has ripple effects on livestock and farm productivity, threatening the livelihoods of households as well as the broader provincial and national economies. The study advocates proactive strategies to manage drought, rather than relying solely on reactive measures. This includes careful management and effective utilisation of capital assets. The study further calls for strategic interventions to strengthen farmer associations and extension services that provide technical guidance and early warning information to build resilience.