Beyond Reserves: A Reproducible Stress-Testing Framework for Strategic Mineral Security in Türkiye

This study develops a reproducible synthetic stress-testing framework for examining regime-sensitive price fragility across three strategic-mineral exposure classes: boron, chromium, and a rare-earth-linked system. Four latent drivers, supply disruption, processing concentration, substitution rigidity, and logistics friction, are combined through disclosed mineral-specific weights to generate a composite stress index and threshold-dependent return regimes. The final Monte Carlo design contains 3000 monthly return paths of 240 observations for each of nine mineral–scenario cells, producing 27,000 paths in total. A Chow-type sup-F procedure screens the full simulation grid for a single candidate mean shift, while a two-state Gaussian hidden Markov model is estimated for a fixed subsample of 400 paths per cell. Additional diagnostics include a standardized regression of the path-level QLR statistic on mean realized stress and two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov comparisons of scenario-specific QLR distributions. Under the disclosed calibration, the rare-earth-linked system generally produces the strongest screening and stress-sensitivity signals, chromium occupies an intermediate position, and boron produces the weakest. These results establish internal diagnostic consistency across complementary summaries of a common synthetic data-generating process rather than independent empirical validation of actual mineral-market fragility. H1 is demonstrated only within the calibrated threshold design, H2 receives partial calibration-conditional support, and H3 is not directly tested in its strong entry-versus-recovery form. The framework provides a transparent methodological foundation for future empirical calibration, counterfactual sensitivity analysis, and mineral-risk decision-support applications.