Beyond Oil: Gulf Geoeconomic Transformation in the Emerging Middle Eastern Order

The policy viewpoint examines the geoeconomic transformation of the Gulf as they are diversifying from oil-based growth to investment-based growth, and how it is impacting Pakistan's economic and strategic ties with the region. It leverages trade and labour-market information to identify the unsustainability of the traditional avenues, such as concessional oil supplies, low-skilled labour exports, and balance-of-payment support, as well as highlight opportunities for non-oil trade, technical services, digital services, halal food and strategic investments. The analysis evaluates the untapped potential of an extra $2.4 billion in Pakistani exports in 22 product categories and shows the huge gap between Pakistan's export capability and availability of access to the Gulf markets. It further argues that making the Pakistan-GCC Free Trade Agreement operational, harmonizing certification standards, upgrading technical capabilities, and ensuring policy continuity are essential to transforming diplomatic engagement into sustainable geoeconomic gains.