Beyond borders: A decade of change in Europe’s Saker Falcon (Falco cherrug Gray, 1834) population (2012–2022)

Abstract

The westernmost population of the globally endangered Saker Falcon (Falco cherrug) resides in Europe. Despite its small size, this European population is fragmented by political borders, complicating a holistic understanding of its demographic processes, ecology, and threats at the population level. Prior research has predominantly focused on national-level data, summarizing the numbers of breeding pairs in various countries without conducting a unified analysis. This study aims to consolidate and examine the aggregated national data-sets from 2012 to 2022, providing a comprehensive overview of the status of European Saker Falcon breeding population, its trends, and demographic processes. We estimate the European population at 535–700 pairs and identify three distinct subpopulations: the interconnected and growing yet demographically diverse western and eastern subpopulations in Central Europe, and the declining Eastern European (Black Sea) subpopulation, which has limited connection to the two Central European subgroups. The results highlight the necessity of continued large-scale conservation efforts, particularly for the Eastern European subpopulation. Furthermore, cross-border cooperation is crucial for the development and implementation of joint research and conservation strategies.