Between Local Politics and Classroom Norms: How Context Shapes Adolescents’ Populist Voting Intentions

ABSTRACT

Drawing on a person‐within‐context framework, the study investigates how adolescents’ political engagement—specifically, the intention to vote for a right‐wing populist party—is shaped by political climates in two key developmental contexts: the school classroom and the local community. Data were collected from 717 German adolescents ( M _Age = 14.46, SD _Age = 0.64, 53.1% female) across 53 classrooms in 20 schools during the 2021 national election. Three‐level multilevel modeling showed that both classroom and local political contextual conditions (i.e. share of anti‐democratic attitudes within class and right‐wing voting at the local level) related to adolescents’ right‐wing populist voting intentions. Youth in classrooms with higher average anti‐democratic attitudes, as well as those in communities with stronger far‐right electoral support, were more likely to express intentions to support a right‐wing populist party, after controlling for individual attitudes and socio‐demographic characteristics. Experiencing a democratic classroom climate did not emerge as a significant moderator compensating for the effects of anti‐democratic contextual conditions. Overall, the findings underscore that adolescents’ voting intentions reflect not only personal dispositions but also the normative climates of their educational and local environments. Integrating multilevel political contexts is thus essential for understanding and ultimately supporting democratic development during adolescence.