Belief and Betrayal: Institutional Trust in the Shadow of Religious Violence

Religious violence erodes the moral and social fabric that binds communities, striking at the very heart of societal cohesion. As fear and intolerance spread, the foundations of institutional trust weaken, leaving nations vulnerable to deep-seated divisions and governance challenges. Present investigation analyzes the asymmetric impact of religious violence on institutional trust in 10 selected emerging countries (India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria, Egypt, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, Mexico, and the Philippines). Departing from conventional analyses that rely on standard econometric techniques and often overlook regional heterogeneity, the present investigation uses the cutting-edge Quantile-on-Quantile method. This approach facilitates a nuanced examination of cross-country variation, enhances analytical precision, and reveals intricate, nation-specific behavioral dynamics. The results exhibit a strong negative association between religious violence and institutional trust in most sample countries. In contrast, South Africa and Mexico exhibit a mixed association. These findings underscore notable variations across quantiles, highlighting the asymmetric nature of the relationship between the variables. They emphasize that policymakers must undertake thorough assessments and formulate strategies tailored to each country’s specific social and regional contexts, ensuring that the multifaceted and sensitive link between religious violence and institutional trust is addressed effectively and in a locally responsive manner.