DOI: 10.15672/hujms.1866130 ISSN: 2651-477X

Bayesian-smoothed location quotients for small regions with credible intervals and specialisation probabilities

Aleksandr Trishin
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Location quotients are widely used to benchmark the relative concentration of activity in a region against a reference economy, but they are often reported as point estimates without uncertainty and can be unstable for small regions and rare categories. This paper proposes a Bayesian-smoothed location quotient that shrinks noisy region–sector shares toward the benchmark share and reports uncertainty using posterior credible intervals. As an alternative to arbitrary threshold rules, we introduce a posterior probability of specialisation that directly quantifies the evidence that a region’s latent share exceeds the benchmark share. We also provide a short stability bound showing that the smoothed estimator has controlled one-unit sensitivity to perturbations in the underlying counts. A concise simulation study and an empirical illustration demonstrate improved stability and more cautious inference in sparse-count settings.

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