Ballots over Barrels: Oil, Democracy and Conflict in Guyana

Abstract

The political resource curse posits that newly resource-rich states risk experiencing authoritarianism and conflict. This article examines Guyana as a most-likely case of that phenomenon. Drawing on interviews and quantitative indicators, we find that oil has not driven the recent democratic backsliding and rising geopolitical tensions. Instead, Guyana’s democratic fragility stems from winner-take-all electoral institutions in a context of deep ethnic polarisation and major parties’ limited normative commitment to democracy. Regarding conflict, Venezuela’s domestic politics, not oil, is the key driver of regional tensions. We therefore argue that the political resource curse framework may at times obscure more than it reveals, misattributing long-standing political tensions to resource wealth. Domestic and international political dynamics may be better understood as ‘politics with resources’ than politics cursed by oil. Promoting electoral reform, fostering stronger commitment to democratic norms within political parties and ensuring credible deterrence may therefore matter more than technocratic resource governance.