AUC-Proportional Dempster–Shafer Fusion for Uncertainty-Aware Survival Prediction in Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma

Background: Accurate prognosis in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is limited by biological heterogeneity and the absence of formal per-patient uncertainty quantification for treatment-response prediction. This study introduces a multi-layer evidence fusion framework combining gene expression profiling and clinical features with distribution-free uncertainty quantification. Methods: The proposed framework integrates four evidence layers—WGCNA co-expression eigengenes, ssGSEA pathway scores, bootstrap-stable prognostic genes, and the International Prognostic Index—through AUC-proportional reliability discounting and sequential Dempster–Shafer fusion. The primary endpoint was three-year overall survival (OS3yr) as a surrogate for R-CHOP treatment response. Inductive conformal prediction (ICP, ε = 0.10) was applied to provide per-patient uncertainty sets with a distribution-free coverage guarantee. Training used GSE10846 (n = 223, Affymetrix); external validation used GSE181063 (n = 479, Illumina). Results: The proposed framework achieved internal AUC = 0.808 (95% CI [0.750, 0.863]), significantly outperforming logistic stacking (AUC = 0.786, p = 0.0009) and unweighted DS fusion (AUC = 0.767, p = 0.037). External AUC = 0.791 was statistically comparable to logistic stacking (DeLong p = 0.21). AUC-proportional discounting reduced inter-source conflict K- by 75% (0.093→0.023). ICP achieved 90.1% internal and 94.6% external coverage; 43.5% of training patients received uncertain predictions ({S,R}). Conclusions: The proposed framework provides an uncertainty-aware approach for multi-layer genomic–clinical evidence fusion in DLBCL, with cross-platform discrimination validated on an independent Illumina cohort.