Attribution of Changes in European Flood and Drought Magnitudes to Climatic and Socioeconomic Drivers

Abstract

Hydrological extremes display long‐term trends and natural oscillations in response to climatic and socioeconomic factors. Knowing how and why these extremes are shifting is crucial for increasing water resilience in Europe. This work analyses trends in floods and droughts in European catchments between 1951 and 2020. Using the OS LISFLOOD hydrological model and non‐stationary extreme value analysis, we disentangle the effects of dynamics in climate, encompassing climate variability and climate change, land use, water abstraction and reservoirs on river flow extremes. Our results reveal spatial and temporal variations in magnitude of hydrological extremes. Land use changes have generally increased flood and drought hazards, while water demand primarily intensified droughts. Reservoirs, conversely, have decelerated the hydrological cycle. Our work delivers insights into the intricate connections between climate, society, and water in European river basins, enabling the development of effective strategies for enhancing resilience to extreme water events under global change.