Asymmetric Dynamic Transmission of International Commodity Price Fluctuations to U.S. Construction Output Prices: A NARDL Analysis of Quarterly Data, 2010–2025

The linkage between construction output prices and international commodity markets has become increasingly pronounced, yet evidence on how commodity price shocks relate to final construction output prices remains limited. Existing studies typically rely on material input cost indices, creating a tautological overlap between commodity prices and the dependent variable, while assuming symmetric linear relationships that overlook directional heterogeneity. This study employs the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for new nonresidential building construction, which reflects contractors’ bid prices, as the dependent variable. Using World Bank commodity price data and quarterly observations for 2010–2025, a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model examines the asymmetric pass-through of international iron ore, crude oil, and non-ferrous metal prices to U.S. construction output prices. The results reveal a stable long-run cointegration relationship and ratchet-type asymmetry in non-ferrous metal price adjustment: a 1% increase in non-ferrous metal prices is associated with an approximately 0.36% increase in construction output prices in the long run, whereas the association of price declines is statistically insignificant. No cointegration is identified under the conventional symmetric specification. However, this asymmetry is sensitive to the inclusion of macroeconomic controls. Scenario projections indicate that a 10% rise in non-ferrous metal prices corresponds to an approximately 3.7% increase in construction output prices within three years, providing illustrative benchmarks for contingency planning, procurement, and hedging.