Assessment of Voltage Violation Risk in Distribution Networks Under Extreme High-Temperature Conditions with Multiphysics Field Coupling

To address the low-voltage violations that may occur in distribution networks with high penetration of distributed photovoltaic (PV) during sunset and evening peak periods under extreme high-temperature conditions, this paper establishes a source–grid–load electro-thermal coupling model that accounts for load thermal accumulation, transient conductor thermal inertia, temperature-dependent line impedance, and PV thermal derating. Based on a soft safety lower bound and a risk-preference utility function, the probability of voltage violation, violation depth, and expected violation duration are introduced to construct node-level and system-level comprehensive risk factors. The cumulant method combined with the Cornish–Fisher expansion is used to reconstruct the probability distribution of nodal voltages, enabling analytical risk calculation. Simulation results on the IEEE 33-bus system at 45 °C show that the proposed method can quantitatively reflect the temporal variations of nodal voltage distributions, physical violation depth, dimensionless severity utility, and expected violation duration, and identify weak nodes in the later part of the evening peak, providing a reference for risk early warning in distribution networks under extreme heat.